Champions Trophy 2025 – Group B scenarios – England in must-win territory; SA in contention for top spot
South Africa
Mat: 2, Pts: 3, NRR: 2.140; Rem mat: vs Eng
If South Africa beat England, they will qualify for sure and could take top spot even if Australia beat Afghanistan, as long as their net run rate tops Australia’s. However, a defeat to England could knock them out if England and Australia beat Afghanistan.
For South Africa to stay in contention with three points, Afghanistan will have to win at least one match. If they beat England and lose to Australia, then Australia and South Africa will qualify; if Afghanistan beat Australia and lose to England, then South Africa and Australia will be fighting for second place; if Afghanistan win both matches, then Afghanistan will top the group and second place will again come down to the run rate between Australia and South Africa.
Australia
Mat: 2, Pts: 3, NRR: 0.475; Rem mat: vs Afg
Australia will be through with five points if they beat Afghanistan on Friday. If they lose, their qualification chances will depend on the two remaining England games. If England win both games and Australia lose, then either Australia or South Africa will finish second in the group, depending on net run rate.
Thanks to their 107-run win against Afghanistan, South Africa are currently sitting pretty on NRR. Even if Australia lose to Afghanistan by just one run chasing 301, South Africa will have to lose to England by at least 87 runs chasing the same target, for Australia to sneak ahead on NRR.
England
Mat: 1, Pts: 0, NRR: -0.475; Rem mat: vs Afg, SA
England need to win both their remaining games to qualify; a defeat against either Afghanistan or South Africa will knock them out. Given that the weather forecast looks fine for both their matches – though Lahore is expected to be overcast for their Afghanistan encounter – sharing points in either of them looks highly unlikely.
Afghanistan
Mat: 1, Pts: 0, NRR: -2.140; Rem mat: vs Eng, Aus
Like England, Afghanistan need two wins to be sure of qualification. If they beat England and their match against Australia is washed out – there is forecast for some rain in Lahore on Friday – then they’ll finish on three points. In that case, they can qualify only if England beat South Africa, and if Afghanistan trump South Africa on NRR.
